THE THIN WHITE LINE: the history of a future avian influenza pandemic

Chapter 4: "The End is Near"

The counting

Table 4-2. The epidemic in Ontario.

	Total
Population	12,687,000
Attack rate	25%
Clinically ill	3,171,750
Seeking outpatient care with doctor	50%
Seeking outpatient care with doctor	1,585,875
Hospitalized	10%
Hospitalized	317,175
Mortality without antivirals	2.5%
Mortality with antivirals	1.25%
Mortality	39,647

Table 4-3. The epidemic in Quebec.

	Total
Population	7,546,000
Attack rate	25%
Clinically ill	1,886,500
Seeking outpatient care with doctor	50%
Seeking outpatient care with doctor	943,250
Hospitalized	10%
Hospitalized	188,650
Mortality without antivirals	2.5%
Mortality with antivirals	1.25%
Mortality	23,581

Table 4-4. The epidemic in British Columbia.

	Total
Population	4,114,000
Attack rate	25%
Clinically ill	1,028,500
Seeking outpatient care with doctor	50%
Seeking outpatient care with doctor	514,250
Hospitalized	10%
Hospitalized	102,850
Mortality without antivirals	2.5%
Mortality with antivirals	1.25%
Mortality	12,856

Table 4-5. The epidemic in Alberta.

	Total
Population	3,243,000
Attack rate	25%
Clinically ill	810,750
Seeking outpatient care with doctor	50%
Seeking outpatient care with doctor	405,375
Hospitalized	10%
Hospitalized	81,075
Mortality without antivirals	2.5%
Mortality with antivirals	1.25%
Mortality	10,134

Table 4-6. The epidemic in Manitoba.

	Total
Population	1,148,000
Attack rate	25%
Clinically ill	287,000
Seeking outpatient care with doctor	50%
Seeking outpatient care with doctor	143,500
Hospitalized	10%
Hospitalized	28,700
Mortality without antivirals	2.5%
Mortality with antivirals	1.25%
Mortality	3,588

Table 4-7. The epidemic in Saskatchewan.

	Total
Population	968,000
Attack rate	25%
Clinically ill	242,000
Seeking outpatient care with doctor	50%
Seeking outpatient care with doctor	121,000
Hospitalized	10%
Hospitalized	24,200
Mortality without antivirals	2.5%
Mortality with antivirals	1.25%
Mortality	3,025

Table 4-8. The epidemic in Nova Scotia.

	Total
Population	933,000
Attack rate	25%
Clinically ill	233,250
Seeking outpatient care with doctor	50%
Seeking outpatient care with doctor	116,625
Hospitalized	10%
Hospitalized	23,325
Mortality without antivirals	2.5%
Mortality with antivirals	1.25%
Mortality	2,916

Table 4-9. The epidemic in New Brunswick.

	Total
Population	730,000
Attack rate	25%
Clinically ill	182,500
Seeking outpatient care with doctor	50%
Seeking outpatient care with doctor	91,250
Hospitalized	10%
Hospitalized	18,250
Mortality without antivirals	2.5%
Mortality with antivirals	1.25%
Mortality	2,281

Table 4-10. The epidemic in Newfoundland and Labrador.

	Total
Population	505,469
Attack rate	25%
Clinically ill	126,367
Seeking outpatient care with doctor	50%
Seeking outpatient care with doctor	63,184
Hospitalized	10%
Hospitalized	12,637
Mortality without antivirals	2.5%
Mortality with antivirals	1.25%
Mortality	1,580

Table 4-11. The epidemic in Prince Edward Island.

	Total
Population	136,000
Attack rate	25%
Clinically ill	34,000
Seeking outpatient care with doctor	50%
Seeking outpatient care with doctor	17,000
Hospitalized	10%
Hospitalized	3,400
Mortality without antivirals	2.5%
Mortality with antivirals	1.25%
Mortality	425

Table 4-12. The epidemic in Canada.

	Total
Population	31,612,897
Attack rate	25%
Clinically ill	7,903,224
Seeking outpatient care with doctor	50%
Seeking outpatient care with doctor	3,951,612
Hospitalized	10%
Hospitalized	790,322
Mortality without antivirals	2.5%
Mortality with antivirals	1.25%
Mortality	98,790