“People are inclined to say, ‘Webster, you are always calling wolf.’ But this time I really have to take the gloves off. It’s going to happen, guys.”

—Dr. Robert Webster, Director, U.S. Collaborating Center, World Health Organization, 2005(1)

    This book is a work of speculative fiction describing a severe influenza pandemic in the year 2012, focusing on the Canadian experience.
    While the specter of bird flu dominated and then receded from news coverage in recent years, the threat remains of the H5N1 virus mutating into a form easily transmissible between humans. The modern world’s ever-increasing population connected by commercial air routes, in fact, provides ideal conditions for a pandemic; all that is missing is a single mutation in a rapidly evolving flu virus to provide the necessary spark. Regardless of whether the virus is H5N1 or some other strain, scientists consider a flu pandemic to be an inevitable part of humanity’s future, just as it has been a frequent part of its past——such as in 1918-19, when the Spanish Flu killed 40-100 million people around the world.
    Most government pandemic influenza response plans assume a “mild” or “moderate” pandemic virus scenario, while largely avoiding the very real possibility of a “severe” pandemic. This led to the central question of this book: What would happen if a Spanish Flu-type virus emerged instead, triggering a severe pandemic?
    The Thin White Line creates a near-future scenario of how such an event might unfold in Canada, with every major prediction based on meticulous research of government response plans, scientific research and past pandemics to maximize realism. Presented as a history book written several months after a future pandemic has ended, it interweaves a written history of events and dates with an oral history of people who survived this dark chapter in Canada’s history.
    An influenza pandemic would present catastrophic challenges to government, the health system and every individual.
    This is how it might occur. . . .

How Dangerous is H5N1?

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©2008 Future Shock Books, a division of ZING Communications, Inc.